Where We Stand with 25 Days Left

HILLARY:TRUMP

Presidential Race:

The home stretch is finally here. Just one more presidential debate remains with October 19th being the candidates’ last national plea to voters on stage. Following the debate, both candidates will embark on a 20-day frenzy to the finish line on November 8th. Current polling data suggests Trump will need a small miracle to make November 8th competitive. The current “no-toss-up” real clear politics map projects an electoral landslide with Hillary Clinton earning 340 electoral votes to Trump’s 198. Trump’s campaign recently announced they were pulling out of Virginia—an admission of defeat in Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate Tim Kaine’s home state. The projected electoral landslide has emerged because Trump currently trails in every traditional swing state besides Iowa and even is running the risk of losing Republican strongholds Georgia and Arizona. The Republican establishment, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, has also almost completely abandoned his effort leaving Trump in a world of trouble 25 days before election. Trump’s electoral math is increasingly difficult as the real clear politics map currently indicates he would need to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa to even stand a chance of reaching 270 electoral votes. Fivethirtyeight, a ESPN affiliated website run by Nate Silver, currently gives Hillary Clinton an 84.7% chance to win the election while giving Donald Trump a mere 15.3%.

While Trump’s road to 270 on November 8th is certainly slim, the race for President of the United States is far from over. Hillary Clinton’s recent Wikileaks included: religious bias, deep corruption and favoritism in the Democratic primary process, and a former Bill Clinton aide calling her daughter Chelsea a “spoiled brat.” Clinton’s emails may continue to haunt her through election day—giving Trump a window of opportunity to make a comeback. In addition, historians have seen massive comebacks in Presidential elections as result of an “October surprise.” An October surprise could be anything from another shocking revelation about either candidate, a terror attack, or an economic crash that could swing the vote of previously decided voters.

Senate:

With 25 days left the race for the Senate remains extremely tight, however, polls indicate Democrats have made strides since Trump’s vulgar videotape surfaced last Friday. According to fivethiryeight, the Democrats currently have a 60.3% chance to win back control of the Senate from Republicans for the first time since 2014. What’s interesting about these numbers is that it factors in a 50/50 tie as Democratic control because current betting odds highly lean towards Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump in November. A 50/50 tie and a Clinton Presidency would mean that current Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine would break ties in the Senate. Any vote that ends tied, such as the pending vote on Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, will almost certainly end up favoring the Democrats because of Kaine’s tiebreaking vote.

As election day approaches the most important Senate races to watch are as follows:

North Carolina—Richard Burr (R) vs Deborah Ross (D)
Pennsylvania—Pat Toomey (R) vs Katie McGinty (D)
New Hampshire—Kelly Ayotte (R) vs Maggie Hassan (D)
Nevada—Joe Heck (R) vs Catherine Cortez Mastro (D)
Missouri—Roy Blunt (R) vs Jason Kander (D)

House:

When Donald Trump unofficially clinched the GOP nomination on May 3rd following the Indiana primary, some Democrats hoped that he would be a poor enough candidate to help Democrats take back control of the House of Representatives. The Democrats hope, however, has not come to fruition as Democrats have struggled to make up ground in many congressional districts. House Speaker Paul Ryan also announced Monday that he is abandoning Trump’s campaign and will spend his time campaigning for down-ballot Republicans fighting to keep their House seats. While real clear politics currently projects the Democrats to pick up approximately 15 seats, the Republicans are strongly projected to maintain control of the House.




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